“Ipsos’s September 2026 polling reveals sharp divides in South Africa’s metros: Cape Town shows the DA at 46%, while eThekwini sees MK surging to 55%. Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay remain too close to call, underscoring the likelihood of coalition governments after the November elections.”
South Africa’s political landscape is entering a decisive phase as the country prepares for the November 4, 2026 local government elections. The latest Ipsos metro polling has captured the shifting sands of voter sentiment, revealing a fragmented and highly competitive environment across the nation’s major cities. While Cape Town appears relatively stable under the Democratic Alliance (DA), other metros such as Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay are balanced on a knife-edge. Meanwhile, eThekwini has emerged as a stronghold for the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, reshaping expectations for coalition politics.
Cape Town: DA’s Stronghold
- DA at 46%, ANC trailing at 26%.
- Ipsos notes the DA could cross the 50% threshold, consolidating its dominance.
- Margin of error: 6.12 percentage points, meaning the race is not entirely settled.
- Cape Town remains the most predictable metro, contrasting sharply with the volatility elsewhere.
Johannesburg: A Tight Contest
- ANC leads with 31%, DA close behind at 28%.
- ActionSA at 14%, EFF at 8%, MK at 6%.
- Coalition bargaining is inevitable, with no party commanding a majority.
- Johannesburg reflects the broader national fragmentation, where traditional ANC dominance is eroding.
Tshwane: DA Advantage
- DA at 31%, ANC at 22%.
- ActionSA (11%) and EFF (9%) play spoiler roles.
- Smaller parties collectively capture 18%, highlighting voter disillusionment with major players.
Ekurhuleni: Four-Way Split
- ANC at 24%, DA at 21%, MK at 18%, ActionSA at 13%.
- No clear frontrunner, making coalition negotiations complex.
- The metro illustrates the rise of MK as a disruptive force.
Nelson Mandela Bay: Deadlock
- ANC and DA tied at 37% each.
- Margin of error: 12.12 percentage points, making the result highly uncertain.
- The city epitomizes the unpredictability of South Africa’s electoral environment.
eThekwini: MK Surge
- MK dominates with 55%, DA at 17%, ANC at 10%, IFP at 6%.
- This is the sharpest result in the Ipsos survey, signaling MK’s consolidation in KwaZulu-Natal.
- The ANC’s collapse here is symbolic of its broader struggles.
Buffalo City: Fragmented Support
- DA at 33%, ANC at 29%, EFF at 27%.
- Margin of error: 15.46 points, making projections unreliable.
- Reflects the growing influence of the EFF in certain regions.
National Picture
- ANC: 31%, DA: 25%, MK: 14%, EFF: 11%, ActionSA: 6%, IFP: 3%, Patriotic Alliance: 2%.
- Ipsos warns these are voting intentions, not forecasts.
- Turnout remains a critical variable: 76% of registered voters say they are likely to vote, but local variations could swing results dramatically.
Public Opinion and Democratic Trust
The Ipsos findings align with broader research showing declining trust in institutions and growing skepticism among voters. Public opinion is fractured not only by party but also by age, region, and income group, making national averages misleading.
Implications for November 2026
- Coalition politics will define governance in most metros.
- Smaller parties like ActionSA, EFF, and MK will hold kingmaker positions.
- Voter turnout and last-minute persuasion campaigns could tip the balance.
- The ANC faces its most serious challenge yet, with its dominance eroded across urban centers.
Conclusion
The Ipsos metro polling underscores a new era of South African politics: one of fragmentation, coalition-building, and regional diversity. While Cape Town may remain a DA bastion and eThekwini an MK fortress, the rest of the country is bracing for complex negotiations. Public opinion has become the decisive factor, reflecting both disillusionment with traditional parties and the rise of new challengers. As November approaches, South Africa’s democracy faces a test of resilience, adaptability, and voter engagement.
