“With less than two months to go before the November 2026 Local Government Elections, Ipsos polling reveals widespread voter frustration, declining party loyalty, and sharp divisions across South Africa’s metros. The ANC faces its weakest national support in decades, while the DA, MK, and EFF are competing fiercely in battleground cities, leaving coalition governments almost certain.”
South Africa’s political landscape is entering one of its most unpredictable phases since the dawn of democracy in 1994. With the Local Government Elections scheduled for 4 November 2026, the latest Ipsos “Pulse of the People” survey paints a picture of an electorate that is deeply frustrated, increasingly skeptical of political promises, and sharply divided across urban and rural lines. The findings suggest that coalition politics will dominate the post-election environment, reshaping governance in key metros and potentially altering the balance of power nationally.
National Trends in Public Opinion
Ipsos polling conducted between June and July 2026 among 3,600 randomly selected South Africans shows the ANC at 31%, the DA at 25%, MK at 14%, and the EFF at 11%. Smaller parties such as ActionSA (6%), IFP (3%), and the Patriotic Alliance (2%) trail behind. These figures highlight a fragmented electorate, where no single party commands majority support.
- Low party loyalty: Many voters are prioritizing service delivery over party allegiance. Ipsos notes that frustration with broken promises is driving voters to demand tangible results rather than rhetoric.
- High uncertainty: About 35% of voters remain undecided, with the Free State showing the highest number of potential abstentions. This uncertainty underscores the volatility of the upcoming elections.
Metro-Level Dynamics
The survey reveals stark differences across South Africa’s major metropolitan areas:
- Cape Town: The DA leads with 46%, far ahead of the ANC at 26%. This is the closest to a settled contest, with the DA potentially crossing 50%.
- Johannesburg: A knife-edge race, with the ANC at 31% and the DA at 28%. ActionSA (14%) and the EFF (8%) could play kingmaker roles.
- Tshwane: The DA leads at 31%, followed by the ANC at 22%. Smaller parties collectively hold 18%, making coalition bargaining inevitable.
- Ekurhuleni: ANC at 24%, DA at 21%, MK at 18%, and ActionSA at 13%.
- Nelson Mandela Bay: Deadlocked at 37% each for ANC and DA, with a wide margin of error.
- eThekwini: MK dominates with 55%, dwarfing the DA (17%) and ANC (10%).
- Buffalo City: Highly fractured, with DA at 33%, ANC at 29%, and EFF at 27%.
These metro-level results highlight the regional diversity of voter sentiment, where local issues and party performance weigh heavily on voter choices.
Voter Sentiment and Service Delivery
Ipsos analysts emphasize that service delivery failures—from water shortages to unreliable electricity—are central to voter frustration. Many South Africans are demanding accountability and concrete achievements rather than promises.
- Transport costs are increasingly seen as barriers to opportunity, particularly in poorer provinces.
- Urban voters are more likely to demand efficiency and transparency, while rural voters remain skeptical of parties’ ability to deliver.
Implications for November 2026
The data suggests that coalition governments will dominate in most metros, with no party securing outright majorities. This raises questions about stability, governance, and the ability of parties to compromise.
- ANC’s decline: Once dominant, the ANC now faces its weakest electoral position in decades.
- DA’s challenge: While strong in Cape Town, the DA struggles to expand nationally.
- Rise of MK and ActionSA: These parties are reshaping the political map, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
- EFF’s role: Though polling at 11%, the EFF could become a crucial coalition partner.
Conclusion
South Africa’s 2026 Local Government Elections are shaping up to be a watershed moment. With low party loyalty, high voter frustration, and fragmented support, the electorate is signaling a demand for accountability and effective governance. The ANC’s decline, the DA’s regional strength, and the rise of MK and ActionSA point to a future where coalition politics becomes the norm. As election day approaches, the battle for undecided voters will determine not only the composition of local councils but also the trajectory of South Africa’s democracy.
