The latest Ipsos “Pulse of the People” poll reveals a neck-and-neck contest between the ANC and DA in major metros, while Jacob Zuma’s MK Party commands majority support in eThekwini. With elections looming on November 4, 2026, the outcome hinges on voter mobilization and turnout strategies.
South Africa’s political landscape is undergoing one of its most dramatic transformations since the dawn of democracy in 1994. The latest Ipsos “Pulse of the People” poll, released on September 4, 2026, has sent shockwaves through the country’s political establishment. The African National Congress (ANC), long the dominant force in South African politics, now finds itself battling the Democratic Alliance (DA) in a dead heat across key metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party has emerged as a formidable player, particularly in eThekwini, where it commands a majority of voter support.
Polling Breakdown
- Johannesburg: ANC leads narrowly with 31%, DA trails at 27%.
- Tshwane (Pretoria): DA surges ahead with 31%, ANC lags at 22%.
- Ekurhuleni & Nelson Mandela Bay: Both metros show razor-thin margins between ANC and DA.
- eThekwini (Durban): MK Party dominates with 55% support, reshaping the political map.
Public Opinion Drivers
- Corruption Concerns: Scandals have eroded ANC’s credibility.
- Service Delivery Failures: Collapsing infrastructure, unreliable electricity, and water shortages fuel discontent.
- Economic Stagnation: Unemployment remains above 33%, with inequality entrenched.
- Coalition Politics: Growing skepticism about coalition governance adds uncertainty.
ANC’s Struggles
The ANC’s liberation legacy once guaranteed comfortable majorities. However, scandals such as state capture, Eskom mismanagement, and the Phala Phala controversy have deeply undermined public trust. The party’s reliance on rural strongholds is increasingly offset by urban disillusionment.
DA’s Rising Momentum
The DA has successfully positioned itself as a credible national alternative. Its campaign strategy emphasizes job creation, reliable service delivery, and anti-corruption measures, resonating strongly with urban voters in Gauteng, Johannesburg, and Tshwane. Internal DA polls suggest confidence in flipping Tshwane, where Ipsos data already places them ahead.
MK Party’s Surge
Jacob Zuma’s MK Party has emerged as a disruptive force. With 55% support in eThekwini, it is now South Africa’s third-largest party nationally. Zuma’s populist appeal, rooted in promises of radical economic transformation and loyalty to his liberation-era credentials, has galvanized voters disillusioned with both ANC and DA.
Implications for November 2026 Elections
The November 4 elections could mark a historic turning point.
- ANC risks losing dominance in metros.
- DA could consolidate urban power bases.
- MK Party may redefine coalition dynamics.
Turnout strategies will be decisive. Analysts warn that low turnout among ANC supporters could tilt metros toward the DA, while MK’s energized base in KwaZulu-Natal could reshape national coalition negotiations.
Conclusion
South Africa stands at a crossroads. Public opinion reflects frustration with corruption, collapsing infrastructure, and economic stagnation. The ANC faces its toughest challenge yet, the DA is gaining momentum, and MK is rewriting the rules of political competition. As November 4 approaches, the battle for metros will determine not only who governs locally but also the future trajectory of South Africa’s democracy.
