“The latest Ipsos poll shows the ANC and DA locked in a neck-and-neck battle across major metros, with the ANC narrowly ahead in Johannesburg and the DA leading in Tshwane. Meanwhile, Jacob Zuma’s MK Party is surging in eThekwini, commanding 55% support and reshaping South Africa’s political balance.”
South Africa’s political landscape is entering one of its most competitive phases since the dawn of democracy. With the 2026 Local Government Elections scheduled for November 4, the latest Ipsos poll reveals a dramatic contest between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) across key metros, while Jacob Zuma’s MK Party emerges as a formidable force in KwaZulu-Natal. This dynamic reshaping of voter preferences underscores the growing fragmentation of South African politics and the likelihood of coalition governance at the municipal level.
ANC vs DA: The Battle for Metros
The poll shows the ANC narrowly ahead in Johannesburg (31%), while the DA trails at 27%. In Tshwane, however, the DA leads with 31%, compared to the ANC’s 22%, signaling a potential shift in the political capital. Other contested metros include Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City, where margins remain razor-thin. These figures highlight the ANC’s declining dominance and the DA’s growing urban appeal, particularly among middle-class voters frustrated with service delivery failures.
MK Party’s Surge in KwaZulu-Natal
Perhaps the most striking development is the MK Party’s dominance in eThekwini, where it commands 55% support. Founded by former president Jacob Zuma, the MK Party has capitalized on disillusionment with the ANC, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s political stronghold. The party’s populist rhetoric and promises of radical economic transformation resonate strongly with voters who feel marginalized by mainstream politics. This surge positions MK as South Africa’s third-largest party nationally (14%), ahead of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 11%.
Smaller Parties and Coalition Prospects
Beyond the big three, ActionSA (6%), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP, 3%), and the Patriotic Alliance (PA, 2%) are carving out niches in local politics. While their national support remains modest, these parties could play kingmaker roles in coalition negotiations, particularly in metros where no single party secures a majority. The rise of smaller parties reflects voter fatigue with traditional powerhouses and a desire for fresh leadership.
Voter Turnout and Mobilization
Pollsters emphasize that final outcomes will hinge on voter turnout strategies. With over 29 million registered voters, including unprecedented youth mobilization, the November elections could see record participation. The ANC’s ability to mobilize rural voters, the DA’s urban ground game, and MK’s grassroots networks in KwaZulu-Natal will be decisive.
Implications for Governance
The fragmentation of the political landscape suggests that coalition governance will become the norm in many municipalities. This raises questions about stability, policy coherence, and the ability of local governments to deliver services effectively. While coalitions can foster inclusivity, they also risk paralysis if ideological differences prevent consensus.
Conclusion
The 2026 Local Government Elections are shaping up to be a watershed moment in South African politics. The ANC faces its toughest challenge yet, the DA is poised to expand its urban footprint, and the MK Party is rewriting the rules in KwaZulu-Natal. As November 4 approaches, the contest will not only determine municipal leadership but also signal the trajectory of national politics in the years ahead.
