“The latest Ipsos and Social Research Foundation polls reveal a fierce contest between the ANC and DA across Johannesburg, Tshwane, and other metros, while Jacob Zuma’s MK Party dominates eThekwini with over 50% support. Public frustration with corruption, collapsing infrastructure, and economic stagnation is fueling this unprecedented shift in voter sentiment.”
South Africa is entering one of its most consequential election seasons since the dawn of democracy in 1994. With local government elections scheduled for 4 November 2026, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) faces its toughest challenge yet. Recent polling data from Ipsos and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) paints a picture of a nation in flux: the ANC and Democratic Alliance (DA) are battling neck-and-neck across several metros, while Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party has surged to dominance in Durban.
Polling Landscape
- Johannesburg: ANC leads narrowly at 31%, DA trails at 27%, ActionSA at 14%, EFF at 8%, MK at 6%.
- Tshwane: DA ahead with 31%, ANC at 22%, ActionSA at 11%, EFF at 9%.
- Cape Town: DA holds firm at 46%, ANC at 26%, with potential to cross 50%.
- Durban (eThekwini): MK Party dominates with 55% support, DA at 17%, ANC at 10%, IFP at 6%.
- Nelson Mandela Bay: Dead heat at 37% each for ANC and DA.
- Buffalo City: Highly fractured, DA at 33%, ANC at 29%, EFF at 27%.
Public Opinion Drivers
- Corruption Concerns – Years of scandals, from state capture to mismanagement at Eskom, have eroded trust in the ANC.
- Service Delivery Failures – Collapsing infrastructure, unreliable electricity, and water shortages dominate urban frustrations.
- Economic Stagnation – With unemployment above 33%, inequality entrenched, and growth stagnant, voters are demanding credible alternatives.
- Coalition Politics – The likelihood of hung councils in metros such as Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay means coalition bargaining will shape governance.
MK Party’s Rise in Durban
Jacob Zuma’s MK Party has emerged as a populist force, capitalizing on disillusionment with the ANC and DA. Its 55% support in eThekwini marks a historic shift, positioning MK as a kingmaker in KwaZulu-Natal politics. Analysts suggest Zuma’s enduring grassroots appeal and anti-establishment rhetoric resonate with voters who feel excluded from mainstream politics.
DA’s Momentum
The DA has successfully positioned itself as a credible national alternative, particularly in Gauteng and Cape Town. Its campaign emphasizes job creation, reliable service delivery, and anti-corruption measures, resonating with middle-class voters and disillusioned ANC supporters. The DA’s ability to maintain dominance in Cape Town while expanding in Tshwane and Johannesburg signals a growing national footprint.
ANC’s Struggles
The ANC’s support has fallen dramatically compared to past elections. Once buoyed by its liberation legacy, the party now faces skepticism about its ability to govern effectively. The Government of National Unity (GNU) formed in 2024 has failed to restore confidence, with many citizens viewing coalition politics as unstable and ineffective.
Implications for November 2026
- Coalition Bargaining: Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay are likely to see coalition governments, requiring complex negotiations.
- Regional Shifts: Durban’s MK dominance could reshape KwaZulu-Natal politics, challenging ANC’s traditional stronghold.
- National Impact: The ANC’s decline and DA’s rise suggest South Africa may be entering a new era of competitive multi-party democracy.
Conclusion
Public opinion in South Africa is undergoing a seismic shift. The ANC, once dominant, now faces its most serious challenge since 1994. The DA is gaining momentum, while Zuma’s MK Party has captured Durban. As the November 2026 elections approach, the balance of power in South Africa’s metros will hinge on coalition deals, voter turnout, and the ability of parties to address corruption, service delivery, and economic stagnation.
